This Stock Went Up +3,000% 🫣 in 30 Minutes!
6/10сетаприск-менеджментдисциплинаволатильность
Росс Кэмерон разбирает пропущенный трейд по VGTN (+3000% за 30 минут на новостях о назальном спрее). Он не вошёл из-за отсутствия красных свечей и неспособности управлять риском при такой волатильности. Главный вывод — дисциплина и построение «подушки» прибыли важнее погони за FOMO.
что забрать
- Ждать первую красную свечу/откат для входа, а не покупать на серии из 18 зелёных свечей подряд — это снижает риск входа на вершине.
- Использовать 10-секундный график для оценки скорости движения: если свеча может упасть на $0.50–$1.00 за 10 секунд, позиция слишком рискованна для входа.
- Строить «подушку» (cushion) прибыли на раннем входе, чтобы иметь запас для рискованных добавлений на более высоких уровнях.
- Ориентироваться на 200-дневную скользящую среднюю как уровень сопротивления/поддержки: пробой и удержание выше неё — сигнал для входа.
- Избегать входа, когда цена уже далеко ушла от базы (от $2 до $5+), так как стоп-лосс становится слишком широким и риск неконтролируемым.
- Признавать «ловушки» (bull trap): после консолидации ждать свечу-выброс вверх с последующим резким разворотом вниз — не покупать на этом выбросе.
риск-менеджмент
Риск-менеджмент описан через отказ от входа, когда невозможно определить разумный стоп: автор не мог управлять риском из-за огромных свечей и отсутствия чётких уровней поддержки. Он подчёркивает, что после красного дня снижает риск и переходит в режим сохранения капитала, чтобы не допустить серии убыточных дней.
уровни и цифры из видео
- VGTN: рост с ~$2 до ~$44 за 30 минут (факт из видео)
- VGTN: 200-дневная MA на дневном графике ~$6.50 — рассматривалась как сопротивление (мнение автора)
- VGTN: уровни $3.78–$3.88 — планируемый вход на откате, не исполнен (мнение автора)
- VGTN: уровни $4.85, $6.00, $6.50 — рассматривались как возможные точки входа, но отвергнуты из-за риска (мнение автора)
- VGTN: поддержка ~$23, крупный продавец ~$25 (мнение автора)
- ENVB: рост с $2.50 до $5 и возврат к $2.50 — пример FOMO-ловушки (факт из видео)
Не финансовая рекомендация — прогнозы и уровни выше это мнение автора видео, не факт.
полный транскрипт ▾
all right everyone so we're gonna do an anatomy of the trade episode here today on vtgn a stock that went up about 3 000 in 30 minutes wow that is crazy and I just had to make myself a little green tea because I exhausted myself with my exercise of discipline by not jumping in as a fomo trade I kept waiting for a good entry I kept not seeing a good entry I was waiting for a red candle and guys this thing didn't have a red candle until it was at 23 dollars a share and it started way down here at two bucks so you know schmuck that I am I'm sitting here trying to be patient I miss the whole move so I'm gonna talk to you about um that experience and and and this really this isn't about an episode about me this is I'm gonna talk about the stock and what I saw what I liked about it but also what I didn't like about it uh so and I'll also just maybe preface uh this anatomy of a trade on uh vtgn by saying that discipline is the reason I have become as successful as I've been so this is an article that I just wrote for entrepreneur about how I turned 583 dollars into 10 million and um this is the things that I harp on in this article are discipline discipline discipline discipline I mean it's simple you will fail you can reduce that learning period by studying and applying what others have learned before you learn from my experiences I have fomo'd into trades like this before and taken massive losses and it's not worth it so I'll also talk a little bit about the opportunity cost um that comes with discipline and you know at the end of the day it's one of these questions of if I had just given into fomo I probably would have made money today but would that not be reinforcing an unhealthy pattern right you know it's like if you go up to someone and you're like give me all your money and they give you your money you're like oh that that worked so then do you keep doing it uh I hope not but you know you probably would if it worked pretty well so you know you start to maybe that's not a great example but you know you start to learn these bad habits and um if you get positive reinforcement for them that conditions you to continue to make those uh poor decisions okay so on vtgn so this stock hits the scanners early and it starts squeezing up it had news and the News was you know I mean we we see news headlines all the time on different stocks I mean they don't usually result in a three thousand percent move so the news on this one um announces positive Top Line results from phase three trial of a nasal spray and social anxiety disorder all right so that's the headline um you know I'm like okay I mean uh listen I I try not to read too much into the headlines because it can bias you I'm thinking okay a nasal spray and it's not cocaine like this what what what they put together here this sounds interesting but um nonetheless I try not to think about it too much I if you recall maybe like two years ago I was in Martha's Vineyard I was trading on my laptop and some news came out of us of a company that uh had just come up with a migraine medication that was said they were it was really good and you may you may know that I suffer from migraines July was a bad month for me I had my I had 16 migraines during the month of July there's only 31 days in the month of July so it was um for those that you know it anyways so I got kind of biased and I was like oh this is this I should this sounds like a great company great drug ended up losing like 30 grand on it so I try not to look too deeply into the headlines if there is a headline then I'm thinking okay that's good enough I'm I don't need to know more than that all right so I see the news it goes up to 250. by the time I was seriously looking at it it was at about three [Music] um it was about 3 30. now a 340. so the thing is previously I had been focusing on przo you can see that's the stock that I am up 155 on it's not a lot um so this one uh I was focusing on because it was a recent IPO was making a big move and I was accumulating um right in this area here I bought this double bottom and I was looking to add scale in this was not just going to be a scalp trade I was taking a starter I was planning to add an ad for a full position on an ABCD pattern and a breakthrough three up to three thirty three forty three fifty the daily chart on it blue sky above four a little above four so I was like this could be a nice five ten thousand dollar winner potentially I was getting focused in on it and I see you know the scanners fire off on vtgn and initially I just didn't think a lot of it because I was already focused on another stock and usually I'm pretty quick to jump over but um anyways by the time I pulled it up it was right around 380 uh three four by three three eighty four dollars by the time I was looking at the level two all right so we're gonna look at the 10 second chart on this I know not everybody has 10 second charts but this is so the day trade Dash platform that I use for my trading that we've built out at Warrior this has 10 second charts because I do find them helpful okay so I looked at it right I pulled it up right about here and it was actually right around here it was like 364 and then it rips up hits a high of 395 and I'm like okay it's moving quickly can I get a dip and right here on this candle look at this it hits four on the ask and then it drops to 350. so this was important I was like whoa okay this is the type of stock that has the potential to drop 50 cents in less than 10 seconds I have to be careful I have to manage my risk so I started kind of thinking all right where can I get it and it goes up to a high of 405 and then it pops to 420 and I was like wow man that was this thing is strong but to Red candle it's a rejection it's a topping tail and it pulls back it goes down to 373. goes down to 354. and in this area I was sort of like okay maybe this is a spot where I could do a dip I actually put out I prepared an order at 378. 378 388 prepared an order and I didn't I didn't even click the buy button it jumps over my ore it just all of a sudden it's back again in 10 seconds less than 10 seconds it goes from 380 up to four and up to 435 high but notice again this topping tail so you've got a few candles here topping tail this one's got a big doji you've got another big one here so I was like man all right well shoot what do I do now do I get in when this next candle breaks the high this candle at 435 for the break of 450. it's kind of risky this thing could go right back down to under four so I steered clear of it and it's just said Let Me Wait for a pullback this was a 10 second pullback but I didn't get the trade it went without me so then I was like let me just watch it for a second it goes up to 480. uh 476 480. and it started to pull back here so I was like okay we might have an opportunity here over 485. so now I'm kind of watching it over 485 and you see how it pops here to 483 pulls back comes back up to 486 and then on this candle again look at this it goes up to a high of 580 and I was like my goodness and then it drops to a low of 450. that's over a dollar a share in less than 10 seconds all right so I just I was like I can't I I where where am I going to break the ice on this this thing now has already gone from two dollars to 580. and then I'm looking at the 200 moving average and the 200 moving average on The Daily is at about 650. so I'm like 650s you know probably going to be a resistance level it usually is the 200. so now we're getting pretty close to the 200. it comes back up here these are again chop chop chop candles it ends up going to six pulling back and I felt like I can't buy it at six when the 200 is at 650 it's too close and then look at this it just blows right through 629 goes to seven dollars and now here I was like okay if it's holding over the 200 usually this is the place where I'm a buyer right here but I was sort of just I just I honestly with these candles popping up and then dropping down 50 cents so this one hit a high of 693 it drops down to 650. I was just nervous I was like I don't know it's it's still super extended and then here look at this candle it hits a high of 768 and it drops down to 688 almost a dollar Sharon again so but it ends up continuing higher so at this point I was like man if I haven't broken the ice now on it I I feel like anywhere up here is chasing it and I don't want to lose on it up here knowing that it probably should have gotten in way sooner so at this point I sort of felt stuck that I didn't want to just slam the buy button I was nervous about getting in at the wrong time I felt like I couldn't manage my risk at the end of the day that's what I felt like I couldn't manage my risk on it and it goes on this candle all the way up to 12. but again it's a topping tail it comes back up it goes up to 13. and then right on this candle here hits a high of 13 33 and it drops to 11. so I think the theme on this was you had these sort of light relatively light volume whips these candles that went way way up but also quite uh quite a bit down and then again now it's at 14 and it goes to 16 it goes to 18 and now here it goes from 18 down to 15 that's three points then it goes from 18 to 24 and then from 24 to 27 29 but only for a second and that's back down at 20 that's a seven point drop and this is where you're getting into an area where taking 2 000 shares or even a thousand you could be down 10 you know fifteen thousand dollars really really fast it comes back up in double tops so now I'm watching it in this area it sells off right down here to 23. and I was like okay so we've got it feels like support around 23 but it also felt like there was a big seller around 25. and we were seeing some 40 000 share sell orders so I was like I don't know something someone might be trying to accumulate short and at this point we're kind of going into consolidation so you know what I expected I expected one of those candles here that pops up to 28 maybe 28.50 maybe 29 like this and then does a jackknife reversal and goes straight down like that a bull trap we've seen so many of those this year and that's what I thought was coming and I was wrong wow wow I'm gonna tell you right now this is the biggest pre-market move I have seen probably since 2020 or 2021 I mean this one up three thousand percent in like 30 minutes this is crazy so on this candle it goes from 25 and why it ripped right there you know it just all of a sudden goes straight up and now it's 32. pulls back and rips all the way up to 44. want 10 second pullback but again right here I was like I cannot possibly I can't buy it up here I just you know I the second I buy it I'm gonna see like a hundred thousand share sell order it's gonna drop Five Points and I'm gonna lose 15 grand I just can't do it so I just unfortunately the the moralist story on this is I didn't break the ice I didn't build a cushion and without a cushion I couldn't afford these high-risk trades as it got higher and you know the fact is you didn't have a sing you had like 18 green candles in a row before the first two red candles and those red candles were brief so I certainly wish a congratulations to those who traded this and profited on it phenomenal well done good job for Having the courage to take the trade if your trade was a fomo trade and it paid off you know what lock up the profit be grateful for it and focus on trying to make better decisions tomorrow because they're not always going to work out that well for you so you got a little you know if it bailed you out from some losses you got yourself a little bailout be grateful for it but that's not gonna happen every day so it's great to have a little bit of good luck but you'll find that luck doesn't pay off long term in the market discipline does again that's how I turned 583 into 10 million in five years now I'm at like 12.5 million in gross profit uh but I talk about 583 to 10 million because it's just a nice round number in any case um I I think that there's um I'm sure that there are some Longs that just press the buy button way up here they're like oh my God this thing's going to a hundred and took a big loss I know for a fact that there's a lot of short sellers that got annihilated on this you know started shorting at four or five or six and just kept adding and adding and adding and adding and in one trade gave back months of progress and this has been a really interesting week there's been a lot of conversation about trading small caps trading large caps Short Selling what is the right strategy well you know what's right for me may not be right for you at the end of the day my results are not typical and so my experience trading is is my own you don't see three thousand percent moves in any Market other than penny stocks or small cap I don't trade OTC markets and I don't trade stocks under a dollar although those sometimes provide these opportunities I focus on between two and twenty generally this one was within it uh at the bottom and then broke out on the top side of price and and I know for a fact that when I trade stocks over 20 I have a higher likelihood of having big big losses so that's something I know in my metrics it does make me more cautious when something is up this high uh but this is this is the volatility that you need if you're looking to make profit in a relatively small account if you've got a small account you need a stock where you can capture 10 15 20 fairly easily and this one with three thousand percent as the window there were a lot of opportunities depending on your risk tolerance again my wrist tolerance was a little bit more narrow and so part of that is because I had a red day on Thursday so last week I had a nice Green Day on let's see no trades on Monday nice green day on Tuesday small red day on Wednesday and then I lost 6 000 on Thursday and I think Friday was either a no trade day or a small green day I can't remember now but in any case uh I was on my traveling trading station on Friday I can't remember what what I what happened but anyways um because of that red day on Thursday I'm still sort of in the shadow of that red day and one of the things that you'll learn this is a marathon not a Sprint so you know when you have a little setback you really have to be pretty quick to tighten things up to pace yourself to try to recoup and not dig the hole deeper the last thing you want to do is have three four five big red days in a row that's when things start to get really bad and it could be demoralizing so I was trading a bit more cautiously or or sort of even though I didn't trade I was uh acting and thinking a bit more cautiously and part of that is what kept me out of this trade now if I'd had a really big cushion on the week or on the month you know that that would be a little bit different I would have come into today with a little bit of a different mentality so on Thursday what I didn't know at the time was that that loss would cost me not only the 6 000 from Thursday but it would cost me a little bit today as well who knows how much because it gave me it put me back into kind of a super risk you know conscious Capital preservation mode and when you're in that mode you're not going to fully capitalize on these types of opportunities but you will present you will prevent blowouts which ultimately is important because in all my years trading I've seen a lot of people blow out on trades like this both long and short you know this type of volatility is is more difficult to manage risk on when your emotions start to take over especially because then all of a sudden you're marketing into it and you're being impulsive and it can pay off but long term like I said risk uh luck is not a strategy so and ultimately this came all the way back down so some of the people buying up here might have been shorts covering some of the people selling up here might have been Longs locking up one of the biggest trades they've ever had uh you know 40 point in two minutes kind of candle it's incredible and then it did come back down so there may be some shorts that made some money on it by waiting for the back side to really show getting short in the 30s and then you know back down here to this lower area that would have been the safer spot but this is a particular pattern that you don't see you just don't see this every day this was absolutely incredible so it's definitely worthy of an anatomy of the trade but um I do recall a time earlier in my career where I didn't trade these at all because I felt like I couldn't manage my risk on it so similarly to today I just didn't feel like I could manage my risk and I want to encourage you if you're in that place to definitely study these charts and try to get comfortable with trading them with smaller size but also understand that it's okay if you don't trade these because ultimately these are kind of once in a blue moon so you can't really base your career on these types of setups it's nice when they happen you can get a nice win from them but they're so infrequent and just you could have the luck of the draw that you're out of the you know you're on vacation that day you're you know whatever you're not even there so if you're basing everything on this that's not really good idea focus on hitting your base hits and then if one of these come at a time when you've got a little bit of a profit cushion and you you know maybe did take that first pullback and you built a little bit of a cushion on this one you know even maybe right place right time you'll end up having a nice day on it but um these these should be icing on the cake they shouldn't be the entire cake yeah if I had taken 10 000 shares and just let it ride of course you know Coulda Woulda Shoulda but there's probably no one that did it and if someone did it was probably because they don't even know what they're doing it was just like you know beginner's luck like oh I pressed the buy button and then I sold 10 minutes later on my phone and whoa was up 400 Grand so don't don't get yourself bent out of shape if you see people that are claiming those types of wins um this Market we have been seeing a lot of those sort of Swing Traders um throwing down some profits that are just you're kind of like well why did you buy oh I just you know I just bought and sold a day or two later MF yell right top you know there's newsletters out there that some some people receive text alerts and stuff and they're like oh you know the alert service said to buy tops so I just bought it and well sometimes those work but I haven't found any of those to really be consistent long term so anyways um this Market you do have some people that have that approach and they can sometimes end up being getting some big wins it can be very frustrating for a Trader like myself it makes me feel like man am I overdue am I overthinking this am I making this more complicated than it needs to be but again if you're doing this as a career it's long term you know you have to find a way of finding consistency and that means developing a strategy and mitigating your risk so I I don't have a lot of profit to show for today I exercised a lot of discipline and um you know the last thing I want to do is jump into something um like this envb stock just for instance this started to pop up around 9 30 kind of right as um vtgn was hitting its highs and it's like Traders were kind of jumping on this like oh maybe it's going to be the next one and I kind of wondered that too but man that was not the case this thing went from 250 to 5 and then right back to 250. so you don't want to let fomo get the best to you and if you feel like you're kind of tapped out for today then step back take the day and come back tomorrow recharged this is the thing we didn't know this vtgn was going to happen today we have no idea what's going to happen tomorrow next week the week after next month but there's always there's always another one around the corner so just try to trade the next one a little bit better than you traded this one we can all do that all right so hope you found this interesting anatomy of a trade on vtgn and I'll see you guys back here for the live day trading morning show tomorrow