I made a big mistake…
7/10риск-менеджментсетапfomoволатильность
Росс Кэмерон разбирает свою ошибку на биотехе TPST, выросшем на 4693%: он слишком агрессивно покупал на растяжках, попал в circuit breaker halts и отдал половину прибыли. Главные уроки — правило «отдал половину профита — уходи», торговля в pre-market/after-hours без холтов и фокус на откатах (curls) вместо погони за хаем.
что забрать
- Правило выхода: если отдал половину дневной прибыли — прекращай торговлю; если ушёл в минус по дню — тоже стоп.
- Торгуй такие волатильные бумаги в pre-market (7:00–9:30) и after-hours (после 16:00) — там нет circuit breaker halts, риск управляем.
- Следи за volatility bands (halt up/halt down) через market data у брокера, чтобы понимать, где бумага встанет в холт.
- При back-to-back холтах фокусируйся на откатах (curls), а не на покупке в момент вертикального разгона (leg up) — вход на хае опасен.
- Ищи sympathy momentum: когда одна бумага делает огромный мув, сканер top gainers показывает другие (OPGN, SE, YJ), которые тоже сквизят.
- Признак FOMO: эмоциональная реакция (готов швырнуть чашку) — это триггер, окно на выход уже закрывается, уходи немедленно.
риск-менеджмент
Риск-менеджмент: правило «отдал половину дневной прибыли — стоп», «ушёл в красное — стоп». Автор отмечает, что circuit breaker halts делают управление риском почти невозможным — позицию нельзя закрыть до возобновления торгов, а гэп при возобновлении может быть против тебя. Также предупреждает: шорт такой бумаги = неограниченный убыток (пример: шорт $10k на $1 → потеря $100k+ при росте до $10).
уровни и цифры из видео
- TPST: рост с $0.20 до $11.50 (хай дня), +4693% (факт)
- TPST: холт вверх на ~$6.30, открытие на $7 (+10% гэп) (факт)
- TPST: холт вниз трижды подряд — падение ~50% за три свечи (факт)
- TPST: вход автора $10 в after-hours, добавка на $11, затем вход $9 и $9.50, цель $11 — сделка дала +$55,000 (факт)
- OPGN: рост с $0.40 до $2.60 (sympathy momentum) (факт)
- SE: рост с $0.40 до $3.80 (sympathy momentum) (факт)
- YJ: рост с ~$0.50 до ~$2.50 (sympathy momentum) (факт)
- Автор: цель 10% в день на счёте; при счёте $5,000 это $500 (мнение автора)
Не финансовая рекомендация — прогнозы и уровни выше это мнение автора видео, не факт.
полный транскрипт ▾
in today's episode you have an opportunity to learn from the mistakes that I made trading a stock that went up over 4,693 and so what I want to do is I want to be very simple very concise and give you three tips that you can Implement in your trading to help yourself not fall victim to fomo to help you not buy the top of these moves to help you avoid getting caught in circuit breaker Halt and I also want to teach you a few lessons on how to find these typ of stocks before they make the big move so you could be trading the beginning of the front side and not chasing it after it's already made the move today was also an example of a day where we had fomo Momo we had a lot of momentum that was sympathy to the primary stock that made a big move it was a clinical stage biotech company from California that put out news this morning updating uh a data from a study that they're conducting and the results were positive as the stock went up over 4,000% but there was so much more than that the sentiment in the market right now and today was super super strong and that's why through the day we saw several stocks go up not just 100% but over 500% some of them with no news at all which could be hard to wrap your head around so we've got a lot to cover in today's Deep dive so let's get on to the screen share and jump right into it the biggest mistake that I made trading this stock today was getting too aggressive trading it as it was getting into these extensions see how high it was getting we had these big extensions but then these dramatic reversals so it was like this is a stock that it's crazy looking at this chart how high it went it started at 20 cents a share and went up to over $11 a share150 was the high but look at how dramatic these moves were you know when we're zoomed out maybe they don't look so big but if you got zoomed in and you were trading it in these moments here you know this this right here goes from $250 to $5 back to about 370 you know these are big pullbacks and for a lot of Traders these are places where it's very easy to get trapped and get stuck and that's exactly what happened to me I got two aggressive buying near the tops and then what happened I got stuck in circuit breaker halts going down now the way I found this stock to begin with high level was using my scanners so this morning I pull up my scanners and I saw that tpst was already up like 300% at 7:00 a.m. so I was like okay we've got a stock that's making a big move and from there I just pulled up the chart and I was like okay where can I start buying this I realized pretty early on that it was a biotech stock with news but that it was sort of the news was funny and that they put out news that news was coming but that news was released this morning and when that came out that's when the volume really came in so for me I did well trading it in a couple of different areas my first trade was at about A1 and 10 right in this area and we got to move up to about a120 which was good for a small winner it sells off it comes back up so kind of dramatic move right there this was sort of already showing us that this is a stock capable of Faking people out and then right in this area I bought 20,000 shares and right into this candle I got myself up about $10,000 on the day so if we zoom in here what we see is a stock really that just started to pull away and this was where the first round of short sellers got blown out they got squeezed out as the stock was going up now 500 600 700% on the day and you have to recognize that if you shorted this stock with $10,000 this morning when it was at about a do a share you could have lost over $100,000 today that's crazy now similarly if you had bought $10,000 you could have made $100,000 and I didn't make $100,000 so it's always easy to say in hindsight how much you could have would have should have but the thing that I really want to highlight on here is that this is the type of stock that is a nightmare for short sellers because a stock going up 4,000% it highlights the fact that when you short a stock you have unlimited losses because you have to buy back your shares so if you short 10,000 shares at a dollar and it goes up to two you're down 10,000 bucks it goes up to $10 now all of a sudden you're looking at six figure losses and the biggest issue for me with this stock was the halt levels so let's pull out the Whiteboard here and talk about these circuit breaker halt levels because this poses a real risk so number one we're going to be talking about uh fomo and how to avoid buying tops but number two I want to jump to this just for a second halt levels so the problem with these types of stocks is that they they trade in very narrow volatility bands so because of the price of this stock at the open it was halting uh it was I believe it was every it was every 10% going up or down and so when it was trading at $2 a share if it went up to 220 it would halt up if it went down to 180 it would halt down these circuit breaker halts are designed to protect retail investors institutional Traders from volatility protect from flash crashes but this is an area where I'm not sure that they're doing the intended purpose because what you can see on the chart is how the stock gaps so just right here for instance this is a really interesting spot where the stock halted going up right here it halts going up at about6 .30 and it opens at $7 a share it gaps up 10% during the Halt and if you were short what could you have done nothing there's nothing you could have done to control your risk there it then opens halts immediately going up within 10 seconds it's halted again and then opens and halts a third time so this stock basically went from $640 pretty much up to 9 and then right up after hours to 11 going up over near or near nearly 100% and it would have been very hard to manage your risk on that type of trade but even for a Trader on the long side some of these halts to the downside right you get a halt down like this one right here where it halts down so now we're getting a halt down right here it halts down a second time it halts down a third time I mean you're looking at a 50% drop in a matter of you know three candles through circuit breaker halts so how are you supposed to manage your risk trading these types of stocks I think that first of all you need to look at this type of stock as clearly an opportunity this is a huge move big moves like this we love them because look my goal if I can make if I can grow my account by 10% in one day I'm thrilled that's a great day so if you have a $5,000 account you make $500 in one day that's a great day right you're not going to make 10% in one day trading a stock that's going sideways right you trade of America you trade serious satellite radio you know these are stocks that they go sideways so you know there's there's no move there to make money on now you have a stock like this this there's a lot of opportunity to make 10% on it you can make 10% probably about a hundred times but it also becomes difficult to manage risk so one of the things that I learned um over the years is the importance of knowing when to walk away and on that today I fail faed epically so I started the day going up $110,000 and as I showed you at the top of this candle right here I was up 10 grand on the day so right there I was up $10,000 and then here is where I made the rookie mistake so going into the open I bought I think it was 15,000 shares or so and I was looking for a squeeze through this pre-market pivot here for a break of the pre-market High and a move up well what ended up happening on this was it halted down at the open and just like that it I mean it's amazing how quickly it can happen I lost about half of my profit on the day here's a rule of thumb learn from my mistake so we're going to flip this over well this was from last episode so we'll just do it here it's fine so rules to live by number one give back half your gain time to walk away this is me walking away all right that's me walking away holding your little briefcase and getting the heck out of town stop trading if you give back half your profit because what happens is once you've given back half you know what you're going to be emotionally triggered I know because it happened to me today but for some reason today even with all these years of experience for some reason today even though I had already given back half and I was up only $5,000 I said I'm going to take one more trade I took one more trade what happened on that trade I lost 7 Grand I brought myself from up 5,000 on the day to down about 1,700 that is now if if that if the time to walk away wasn't when you gave back half it's when you go red on the day it's when you go red now I stopped trading and I walked away the stock ends up squeezing uh and I I was doing some other work uh working on another episode that I'll upload to Youtube shortly uh later this week ends up going up to $2.50 goes up to three and now I'm livid because I see that and I'm thinking you are a loser I can't believe you're the guy who sold at the bottom down here only for this stock to go all the way back up to three then it goes up to 350 to four it goes up to five and then I had uh to run an errand so I go out I run an errand I come back and while I was out running errands you know what I was doing rookie mistake I was checking the stock price on my phone rookie mistake let's put another rule here delete delete mobile app in fact take your phone this little guy right here and throw it away you don't need that thing anymore not on a day like the day I had today where you're feeling fomo where you're feeling feeling frustration you got to stop looking at your phone you got to stop looking at the market learn from my mistake I didn't do that I ended up coming back and as we went into after hours we halted going up and I said to myself I'm going to buy right here in after hours and I bought this at $10 a share and I made 2500 bucks was it a good trade it was an okay trade uh but it wasn't a great one because you know what I did next I added back up here at 11 and I gave back the profit I made so I'm now up on tpst $700 and then I started trading a few other stocks as this started to drop I took one more trade on it and I actually sent myself from a total swing of up $10,000 on the day to down 7,000 that's a big swing and then I got back in tpst right here and I got back in at $9 I added at 950 and you know what I said to myself I said I'm getting in at 9 or 950 I'm going to add at 10 I'm going to add at 1050 and I'm not going to take profit Until It Breaks $111 a share I did that and on that trade I made $55,000 as it came back up here to 11 thank God I didn't say I won't take profit till it hits 1150 because it never hit 1150 and then it ended up selling off you know what if I go back to the very beginning where did I break the first rule the first rule I broke was continuing to trade after I gave back half my profit because if we look at that trade that I took early in the morning it was back here at um you know right going into the open whatever this was um now I've lost my place here so going into the open oops um we'll get this back up here one second so going back into the open I um here it was yeah so right in this area here maybe you could say I was a little too aggressive maybe on this trade I was a little impatient but you know what you have to step up to the plate you have to take risk if you're going to make money trading and in this case I took a little risk it didn't work out and that's life so the right thing to do here was just to walk away with half of my profit and be done but what happens so quickly is you give back half then you go red then you forget to delete your mobile app and then you're down you know minus 5K or - 7K or minus 10K and now you're at your daily Max loss and now what are you doing Hail Mary this just turned from a list of rules to a list of things never to do but I Say Never And as a Trader who's been doing this for a long time and some of you may have also been doing this for a long time you know how easy it is to fall into tunnel vision to get sucked into the moment and next thing you know you're spiraling and this this happens this could have have been a day where I finished down $155,000 that could have happened and that would have been disappointing it wouldn't have been the end of the world of course but it would have been it would have been really discouraging today um you know I just through probably a a you know degree of educated intuition but also thank some luck probably I ended up coming out uh back into the green um it it's it's lucky that that happened it won't happen for most but I think this is why I wanted to share this with you so you could learn from my mistakes because for most people you won't end up coming out on top you'll make these kinds of mistakes and you'll give back half you'll go red you forget to delete the mobile app and then next thing you know you're you're deep in the red so I share this with you as these are these are real things that happen so how do you avoid falling victim to fomo because on the one hand when you have a stock making this kind of move right so this went from you know a low of 20 cents all the way up to $11 a share and then you know what also started happening was we started getting what's called sympathy momentum so I'll just show you for a second here a couple stocks that went up on sympathy momentum um opgn this is a stock here that went from 40 cents a share to $2.60 it went basically straight up all right that was crazy then we had SEO SE this one went from 40 cents to $3.80 this is sympathy momentum we had YJ so when when the market gets hot you start having these backto back to back squeezes I think it was YJ let's just double check the chart yeah this went from about 50 cents a share also to about $2.50 so we got like four of these um this afternoon during after hours trading and you know the result is if we look at our um if we look at our scans we look at our top gainers scanner you're going to see today that we have one two three four five stocks up over a 100% are these the right type of stocks to trade well I think the answer is it depends on your skill level these aren't going to be the right stocks for everyone to trade but these are the stocks that I like to trade and if I show you um I could just give you my like recent you know 90 days here so you know these are the stocks I've been trading just over the last 90 days there's about $150,000 of profit I have red days from time to time maxing out about 10,000 averaging about five and you know I have nice nice Sid scen days from time to time of course these are the stocks that I like because when you have this much volatility for me I find it easier to capture my you know 10% a day whatever you want to you know 10 cents a day 10% a day 20 30 cents on a stock like this it becomes easier but the reality is for me the easiest trades we're pre-market and after hours why there there were no circuit breaker halts premarket or after hours so I wasn't getting caught in halts so today I made my money between about 700 a.m. and 9:30 and then between 400 p.m. and um it's it's about 6 PM now so after hours that was the window where I did better because unfortunately the halts on this one were just unmanageable and even as I was watching it in this area uh once I got back from running my errands I was like I wouldn't be trading it right in here these halts they happen in an instant so what was happening was the stock would be showing like it would be 590 halt down and then it pops up to 620 and it's at the halt up level I mean it was like maybe not quite that tight but it was like the halt levels were so tight it would be at the Hal level down and then a burst of buy orders would go through and it would be at the Hal level up and I found that extremely difficult to manage my risk and unfortunately that's where I gave back my profit because I got caught in a halt and I couldn't unwind the position until resumption but it gapped lower the reason stocks Gap higher and lower during halts is because of the order imbalance so people want to sell they press the sell button and then when it resumes it has to match the new buyers and the new sellers so when they go halt down they open lower typically when they halt up they open higher typically there were there were a few exceptions to that today on this one but that's generally what happened so the best thing you can do do to avoid getting caught in halt is to be very cautious trading these stocks during regular trading hours when we have um halts because we don't have them pre-market at all the next thing you could do is you could carefully watch where the halt levels are which if you subscribe to Market data you depending on which broker you use you're able to see those volatility bands so with those volatility bands you can see very clearly the halt up and the halt down level so you you can kind of at least understand where they are but in this case it was hitting them so fast there was no way to avoid getting caught in them it was very difficult to at least um to avoid buying Tops This is a tough one because the fact is you know my entry up here at $10 which was a good trade in a way uh for that after hour squeeze that was high of day at that moment that I got in when I got back in here for the curl that was a safer trade so if you're a beginner Trader or even you're experienced Trader but you're not feeling totally confident focus on the curls and avoid this leg up now this is counter to what I usually would say usually I would say focus on the leg up but when you're getting these circuit breaker halts back to back it's hard to get in Midway into this ramp up and it feels like it's easier to wait for a pullback and take the curl so focusing a little bit more on curls avoiding trades right at the high of day and then um you know I think in terms of fomo if you're feeling yourself getting frustrated and I'll just give you an example let's say you just lost $5,000 and you pick up a cup like this and you're about to throw it against the wall and you're having to hold your arm back that might mean you have fomo and listen that's not something that would ever happen to me but if it were to happen it would look a lot like that that's a time to walk away and say you know what at least I still have what I have my dignity perhaps a little bit of profit still for the today perhaps this is the time to walk away today for me was a setback while you could say all's well it ends well because I finished green uh it's a setback because I let myself get very very frustrated and um and I never like to let that happen but but it happens to the best of us and so this is this is life but it's the thing is once you get emotionally hijacked you're gone that's the biggest problem you can come back tomorrow and be like what was I thinking but once you get that angry once you get that reactive you can get very Reckless with the way you trade and that that's the that's the truth that's the reality so if you can learn to identify your triggers the second you spot a trigger man your window's already closing to walk away your window the when you realize you you've been triggered your window's already halfway shut and you better get out real quick because if you don't you can start to Snowball the way I did today I want you to learn from these mistakes I want you to look at stocks like this and see and recognize the very real opportunity that they present and you can capitalize on fomo in the market with some of these other stocks that make sympathy moves there's nothing wrong with that but if you find yourself for whatever reason getting triggered that's the place to walk away I had an opportunity to do it today with respect with dignity when I was still at five grand screwed that up and uh I'm walking away today after a real roller coaster of a day and a real emotional setback and I think that that's avoidable if you found this episode interesting I do hope you hit the thumbs up I hope you subscribe to the channel and check out this episode that YouTube thinks you just might love it's right there